Syria, Between Hope and Fear

The fall of the regime in Syria has taken the world by surprise and led to the overthrow of the Assad family dictatorship, which has ruled Syria for more than 50 years. Cities under the regime’s control have fallen one after the other, thousands of political prisoners liberated from the numerous prisons, and opened a potential democratic space for Syria for the first time in decades. 

The fall of the Assad regime

Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched a military campaign on November 27, 2024, against the Syrian regime’s forces, scoring stunning victories. In less than a week, HTS and SNA took control of most of Aleppo and Idlib governorates. Then, the city Hama, located 210 kilometers north of Damascus, fell into the hands of HTS and SNA following intense military confrontations between them and regime forces supported by the Russian air force. Following Hama, HTS took control of Homs.

While the regime was losing town after town, the southern governorates of Suweida and Daraa liberated themselves; their popular and local armed opposition forces, separate and distinct from HTS and SNA, seized control. Regime forces then withdrew from localities about ten kilometers from Damascus, and abandoned their positions in the province of Quneitra, which borders the Golan Heights, which is occupied by Israel.

As different opposition armed forces—again not HTS nor SNA—approached the capital Damascus, regime’s forces just crumbled and withdrew, while demonstrations and the burning of all symbols of Bashar al-Assad multiplied in the various suburbs of Damascus. On the night of December 7 and 8, it was announced that Damascus was liberated. The exact fate and location of Bashar al-Assad was initially unknown, but some information indicated that he was in Russia under the protection of Moscow.

The fall of the regime proved its structural weakness, militarily, economically, and politically. It collapsed like a house of cards. This is hardly surprising because it seemed clear that the soldiers were not going to fight for the Assad regime, given their poor wages and conditions. They preferred to flee or just not fight rather than defend a regime for which they have very little sympathy, especially because a lot of them had been forcefully conscripted.

The weakening of the regime’s main allies was also a key element. Russia, Assad’s key international sponsor, has diverted its forces and resources to its imperialist war against Ukraine. As a result, its involvement in Syria has been significantly more limited than in similar military operations in previous years.

Its other two key allies, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran, have been dramatically weakened by Israel since October 7, 2023. Tel Aviv has carried out assassinations of Hezbollah’s leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, decimated its cadre with the pager attacks, and bombed its forces in Lebanon. Hezbollah is facing its greatest challenge since its foundation. Israel has also launched waves of strikes against Iran, exposing its vulnerabilities.

It has also increased bombing of Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria in the past few months. The fall of the Syrian regime undoubtedly constitutes a significant weakening for Tehran, both internally, but also and above all in terms of its regional political influence. The weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the loss of Syria weakens Iran’s position in future relations and negotiations with the United States under the presidency of Trump.

With its main backers preoccupied and weakened, Assad’s dictatorship was in a vulnerable position. Because of all its structural weaknesses, lack of support from the population it rules, unreliability of its own troops, and without international and regional support, it proved unable to withstand the rebel forces advances and in city after city and its rule over them has collapsed like a house of cards.

Alongside these dynamics in the south, others have occurred in different parts of the country since the start of the rebels’ offensive. First, the SNA, with the support of the Turkish army, led attacks on territories controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Aleppo and took control of the cities of Tell Rifaat and Manbej.

At the same time, but in separate dynamics, the HTS Military Operations Administration took control of the city of Deir ez-Zor, in the northeast of the country, following the defection of the leaders of the Deir ez-Zor Military Council affiliated with the SDF. The city had come under the complete control of the SDF after the fall of the Assad regime.

What is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS)?

HTS has been trying to project a more moderate image of itself, trying to win recognition that it is now a rational and responsible actor. This evolution dates to the rupture of its ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and its reframing of its political objectives in the Syrian national framework. It has also repressed individuals and groups connected to Al-Qaida and the so-called Islamic State. HTS’s leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has continuously attempted to define his group as a legitimate interlocutor on the regional and international scene, emphasizing the group’s role in “fighting against terrorism”.

After the fall of the regime, al-Julani initially met with former Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali to coordinate the transition of power, before appointing Mohammad al-Bashir as head of the transitional government to handle day-to-day affairs. Al-Bashir had previously led the GSS. He will hold office until March 1, 2025, pending the launch of the constitutional process. In addition to this, HTS issued many

statements to try to carry out a controlled transition of power, preferably by consolidating its power over large areas of the territory to allay foreign fears, establish contacts with regional and international powers, and be recognized as a legitimate force with which it is possible to negotiate.

Alongside being an authoritarian and reactionary organization with an Islamic fundamentalist ideology, HTS has no alternative to the neoliberal economic system, which will most likely gather with business networks with new and old business figures also connected to the new leaders in power, similar to the dynamics and forms of crony capitalism of the previous regime.

After the fall of the Assad’s regime, the new Syrian government appointed by HTS has told the business leaders who met with it that it would adopt a free-market model and integrate the country into the global economy, according to Bassel Hamwi, president of the Damascus Chamber of Commerce. Hamwi was “elected” to this position in November 2024, a few weeks before the fall of the Assad dynasty. He is also the president of the Federation of Syrian Chambers of Commerce. Representatives of various economic chambers of the old regime still occupy their positions. This neoliberal economic system mixed with authoritarianism will lead to socio-economic inequalities and continued impoverishment of the Syrian population, which were one of the main causes behind the initial popular uprising.

What are implications across region and potentially in relation to Israel/Gaza?

Neither the US nor Israel had a hand in these events. In fact, they were worried about the events leading up to now. Israeli officials, for example, declared that the “collapse of the Assad regime would likely create chaos in which military threats against Israel would develop.” Moreover, since 2011, Israel has never really been in favor of the Syrian regime being overthrown. In July 2018, Netanyahu had no objection to Assad taking back control of the country and stabilizing his power. He said Israel would only act against perceived threats, such as Iran and Hezbollah’s forces/influence, explaining: “We haven’t had a problem with the Assad regime, for 40 years not a single bullet was fired on the Golan Heights”.

As this stable actor is no more, Israel took matters into its own hands. Indeed, in the days following the fall of the Syrian regime, the Israeli occupation army invaded the Syrian part of Mount Hermon, in the Golan Heights. It sought to prevent the rebels from seizing the area and carried out over 600 strikes on anti-aircraft batteries, military airfields, weapons production sites, combat aircraft and missiles. Missile vessels struck the Syrian naval facilities of Al-Bayda port and Latakia port where 15 Syrian naval vessels were docked. These raids aim to destroy Syria’s military capabilities to prevent them being used against

Israel. It is also sending the message that the Israeli occupation army can cause political instability at any time, should the future government adopt a hostile position that does not serve Israel’s interests.

More generally, Israel’s actions against Syria show its opposition to any democratization of the region and liberations from dictatorships.

A considerable majority of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s popular classes indeed identify with the Palestinian struggle and see it as linked to their own local battles for democracy and equality. It is important that those organizing in solidarity with Palestine understand that Palestinian and regional popular classes are central social forces capable of creating the conditions required to achieve liberation with their support.

When Palestinians fight, this triggers a regional liberation movement, and the regional movement in turn fuels that of occupied Palestine.

Far-right minister Avigdor Lieberman recognized the danger that popular uprisings in the MENA posed to Israel back in 2011, when he said the Egyptian revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak was a greater threat to Israel than Iran.

This is not to deny the right of resistance of Palestinians and Lebanese against Israel, but to explain that the united revolt of popular classes has the power to transform the entire region, topple authoritarian regimes and expel the US and other imperialist powers.

The main task of the international solidarity movement for Palestine, particularly in the West, is to denounce the complicit role of our ruling classes in supporting the racist settler-colonial apartheid state of Israel. We must pressure them to break off any political, economic, and military relations with Tel Aviv. This is the only way that Israel can be weakened, and in turn the path to the liberation of Palestine, and the region more widely, can be paved.

As a Syrian revolutionary wrote from the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights in the summer of 2014: “freedom — a common destiny for Gaza, Yarmouk and the Golan.” This slogan holds out the hope of regional revolutionary transformation, the only realistic strategy for liberation.

Joseph Daher is an internationalist anticapitalist and an academic. He teaches at Lausanne University, Switzerland and at the university of Ghent, Belgium. He is the author of Marxism and Palestine (2024) Syria after the Uprisings (2019) and Hezbollah: The Political Economy of  Lebanon's Party of God (2016). He is the founder of the blog Syria Freedom Forever.